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Banks O' Dee vs Vale of Leithen — FA Cup 2019

Banks O' Dee
Banks O' Dee
FT
6 – 1
Vale of Leithen
Vale of Leithen
12/12/2020FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundSpain Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Banks O' Dee84%
×Draw10%
Vale of Leithen6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banks O' Dee
3.67
Vale of Leithen
0.96

Banks O' Dee creates 282% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Banks O' Dee
3.00
Vale of Leithen
1.17

allows per match

Banks O' Dee
0.75
Vale of Leithen
4.33

finishing

Banks O' Dee+0.00on par
Vale of Leithen+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banks O' Dee ↓

Vale of Leithen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Banks O' Dee or draw
94%
Banks O' Dee or Vale of Leithen
90%
Draw or Vale of Leithen
16%

Winning margin

Banks O' Dee wins by 2+
68%
Vale of Leithen wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Banks O' Dee 1+ goals
97%
Banks O' Dee 2+ goals
87%
Banks O' Dee 3+ goals
68%
Vale of Leithen 1+ goals
62%
Vale of Leithen 2+ goals
25%
Vale of Leithen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Banks O' Dee (draw refunded)
93%
Vale of Leithen (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banks O' Dee at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Vale of Leithen away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banks O' Dee attack 3.00 + Vale of Leithen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.67

Vale of Leithen attack 1.17 + Banks O' Dee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Banks O' Dee scores more
84%
level
10%
Vale of Leithen scores more
6%

Banks O' Dee at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Banks O' Dee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Banks O' Dee 6–1 Vale of Leithen

Banks O' Dee beat Vale of Leithen 6-1 in FA Cup on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Spain Park in Aberdeen.