Banks O' Dee 1–2 Hamilton Academical

Banks O' Dee

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hamilton Academical

M. Philipson 62'

O. Shaw 45+1', 28'

11/30/2024

FA Cup · 3rd RoundSpain Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Banks O' Dee76%

×Draw16%

Hamilton Academical8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banks O' DeeExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.63

Banks O' Dee

2.38

Hamilton Academical

0.63

Banks O' Dee creates 278% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

0.50

0.75

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Banks O' Dee

3.00

Hamilton Academical

0.50

allows per match

Banks O' Dee

0.75

Hamilton Academical

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banks O' Dee+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banks O' Dee ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Banks O' Dee or draw

92%

Banks O' Dee or Hamilton Academical

84%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

24%

Winning margin

Banks O' Dee wins by 2+

53%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

Team goals

Banks O' Dee 1+ goals

91%

Banks O' Dee 2+ goals

68%

Banks O' Dee 3+ goals

42%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

47%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

13%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Banks O' Dee (draw refunded)

90%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Banks O' Dee at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Banks O' Dee attack 3.00 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Hamilton Academical attack 0.50 + Banks O' Dee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Banks O' Dee scores more

76%

level

16%

Hamilton Academical scores more

Banks O' Dee at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Banks O' Dee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

O. Shaw↳ S. Hendrie

41'

K. MacDonald← D. McGowan

45+1'

O. Shaw↳ S. Bradley

58'

S. Hendrie

62'

E. Henderson← S. McKinstry

62'

J. Barjonas← S. Bradley

62'

M. Philipson↳ A. Hunter

65'

A. Hunter← H. MacLeod

70'

M. Alexander← M. Philipson

78'

B. Maguire← C. Smith

81'

C. Antoniazzi← M. Gilmour

86'

K. O'Hara

90+5'

S. Martin

90+5'

L. Duell

Banks

Hamilton

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Philipson

▼

MacLeod

Duell

Manager: P. Lawson

65'▲A. Hunter←▼H. MacLeod

70'▲M. Alexander←▼M. Philipson

81'▲C. Antoniazzi←▼M. Gilmour

Banks O' Dee substitutes

14Hunter12Alexander16Antoniazzi15Davidson13Duncan

Manager: J. Rankin

41'▲K. MacDonald←▼D. McGowan

62'▲E. Henderson←▼S. McKinstry

62'▲J. Barjonas←▼S. Bradley

78'▲B. Maguire←▼C. Smith

Hamilton Academical substitutes

16MacDonald7Henderson10Barjonas14Maguire20Williamson21Lyness27Morgan18Todorov