Banks O' Dee 5–0 Glasgow University: Result & Stats

Banks O' Dee

5 – 0

Glasgow University

8/10/2019

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundSpain Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Banks O' Dee89%

×Draw8%

Glasgow University3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banks O' DeeExpected goals in this matchGlasgow University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.58

0.63

Banks O' Dee

3.58

Glasgow University

0.63

Banks O' Dee creates 468% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

0.50

0.75

allows per match

4.17

creates per match

Banks O' Dee

3.00

Glasgow University

0.50

allows per match

Banks O' Dee

0.75

Glasgow University

4.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banks O' Dee+0.00on par

Glasgow University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banks O' Dee ↓

Glasgow University →

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–011%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Banks O' Dee or draw

97%

Banks O' Dee or Glasgow University

92%

Draw or Glasgow University

11%

Winning margin

Banks O' Dee wins by 2+

74%

Glasgow University wins by 2+

Team goals

Banks O' Dee 1+ goals

97%

Banks O' Dee 2+ goals

86%

Banks O' Dee 3+ goals

67%

Glasgow University 1+ goals

47%

Glasgow University 2+ goals

13%

Glasgow University 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Banks O' Dee (draw refunded)

96%

Glasgow University (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Banks O' Dee at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Glasgow University away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Banks O' Dee attack 3.00 + Glasgow University defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.58

Glasgow University attack 0.50 + Banks O' Dee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

Banks O' Dee scores more

89%

level

Glasgow University scores more

Banks O' Dee at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Banks O' Dee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff