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Banks O' Dee vs Fraserburgh — FA Cup 2019

Banks O' Dee
Banks O' Dee
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Fraserburgh
Fraserburgh
M. Gilmour 45', 23'
S. Pugh 44'
M. Watson 8'
10/25/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Banks O' Dee69%
×Draw17%
Fraserburgh14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banks O' Dee
2.50
Fraserburgh
1.04

Banks O' Dee creates 140% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Banks O' Dee
3.00
Fraserburgh
1.33

allows per match

Banks O' Dee
0.75
Fraserburgh
2.00

finishing

Banks O' Dee+0.00on par
Fraserburgh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banks O' Dee ↓

Fraserburgh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Banks O' Dee or draw
86%
Banks O' Dee or Fraserburgh
83%
Draw or Fraserburgh
31%

Winning margin

Banks O' Dee wins by 2+
47%
Fraserburgh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Banks O' Dee 1+ goals
92%
Banks O' Dee 2+ goals
71%
Banks O' Dee 3+ goals
45%
Fraserburgh 1+ goals
65%
Fraserburgh 2+ goals
28%
Fraserburgh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Banks O' Dee (draw refunded)
83%
Fraserburgh (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banks O' Dee at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Fraserburgh away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banks O' Dee attack 3.00 + Fraserburgh defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Fraserburgh attack 1.33 + Banks O' Dee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Banks O' Dee scores more
69%
level
17%
Fraserburgh scores more
14%

Banks O' Dee at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Banks O' Dee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Watson
23'
M. Gilmour↳ S. Pugh
44'
S. Pugh↳ L. Duell
45'
M. Gilmour↳ S. Pugh
Banks
Fraserburgh
Paul Lawson
Manager: Paul Lawson
Mark Cowie
Manager: Mark Cowie

FA Cup: Banks O' Dee 4–0 Fraserburgh

Banks O' Dee beat Fraserburgh 4-0 in FA Cup on October 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Watson (8'), M. Gilmour (23', 45'), S. Pugh (44').