Banks O' Dee 2–1 East Fife: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Banks O' Dee

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

East Fife

M. Gilmour 81'

C. Higgins 28' (OG)

J. Semple 13'

11/27/2021

FA Cup · 3rd RoundSpain Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Banks O' Dee73%

×Draw17%

East Fife10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banks O' DeeExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.71

Banks O' Dee

2.33

East Fife

0.71

Banks O' Dee creates 228% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Banks O' Dee

3.00

East Fife

0.67

allows per match

Banks O' Dee

0.75

East Fife

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banks O' Dee+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banks O' Dee ↓

East Fife →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Banks O' Dee or draw

90%

Banks O' Dee or East Fife

83%

Draw or East Fife

27%

Winning margin

Banks O' Dee wins by 2+

50%

East Fife wins by 2+

Team goals

Banks O' Dee 1+ goals

90%

Banks O' Dee 2+ goals

67%

Banks O' Dee 3+ goals

41%

East Fife 1+ goals

51%

East Fife 2+ goals

16%

East Fife 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Banks O' Dee (draw refunded)

88%

East Fife (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Banks O' Dee at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Banks O' Dee attack 3.00 + East Fife defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

East Fife attack 0.67 + Banks O' Dee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Banks O' Dee scores more

73%

level

17%

East Fife scores more

10%

Banks O' Dee at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Banks O' Dee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Semple

28'

C. HigginsOwn goal

34'

C. McManus

37'

K. Winton

61'

K. Smith← K. Connell

67'

R. Davidson← L. Newton

71'

J. Henderson← L. MacLeod

72'

73'

75'

81'

82'

M. Alexander← R. Armstrong

86'

87'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

Banks

East

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Watt

71'▲J. Henderson←▼L. MacLeod

72'▲L. Crosbie←▼M. Young

82'▲M. Alexander←▼R. Armstrong

Banks O' Dee substitutes

12Henderson16Crosbie15Alexander14MacAskill18Allan17Watson13Sweeney

Manager: S. Frail

61'▲K. Smith←▼K. Connell

67'▲R. Davidson←▼L. Newton

75'▲P. Slattery←▼L. Watt

East Fife substitutes

10Smith15Davidson8Slattery21Campbell17Anderson20Osei-Bonsu19Higgins11Millar

FA Cup: Banks O' Dee 2–1 East Fife

Banks O' Dee beat East Fife 2-1 in FA Cup on November 27, 2021.

Goals: J. Semple (13'), C. Higgins (28' o.g.), M. Gilmour (81').

The match was played at Spain Park in Aberdeen.

Banks O' Dee vs East Fife — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Banks O' Dee 2–1 East Fife