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Banks O' Dee vs Dalbeattie Star — FA Cup 2019

Banks O' Dee
Banks O' Dee
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dalbeattie Star
Dalbeattie Star
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundSpain Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Banks O' Dee78%
×Draw14%
Dalbeattie Star8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banks O' Dee
2.67
Dalbeattie Star
0.71

Banks O' Dee creates 276% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Banks O' Dee
3.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.67

allows per match

Banks O' Dee
0.75
Dalbeattie Star
2.33

finishing

Banks O' Dee+0.00on par
Dalbeattie Star+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banks O' Dee ↓

Dalbeattie Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Banks O' Dee or draw
92%
Banks O' Dee or Dalbeattie Star
86%
Draw or Dalbeattie Star
22%

Winning margin

Banks O' Dee wins by 2+
57%
Dalbeattie Star wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Banks O' Dee 1+ goals
93%
Banks O' Dee 2+ goals
74%
Banks O' Dee 3+ goals
49%
Dalbeattie Star 1+ goals
51%
Dalbeattie Star 2+ goals
16%
Dalbeattie Star 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Banks O' Dee (draw refunded)
91%
Dalbeattie Star (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banks O' Dee at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Dalbeattie Star away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banks O' Dee attack 3.00 + Dalbeattie Star defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Dalbeattie Star attack 0.67 + Banks O' Dee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Banks O' Dee scores more
78%
level
14%
Dalbeattie Star scores more
8%

Banks O' Dee at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Banks O' Dee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banks O' Dee vs Dalbeattie Star

Banks O' Dee beat Dalbeattie Star 6-0 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Spain Park in Aberdeen.