Bankhai United 0–0 Sisaket: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Bankhai United

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sisaket

6/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bankhai United34%

×Draw19%

Sisaket47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bankhai UnitedExpected goals in this matchSisaket

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.63

Bankhai United

2.25

Sisaket

2.63

Sisaket creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

4.25

creates per match

3.50

1.75

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Bankhai United

4.25

Sisaket

3.50

allows per match

Bankhai United

1.75

Sisaket

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bankhai United+0.00on par

Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankhai United ↓

Sisaket →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–42%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Bankhai United or draw

53%

Bankhai United or Sisaket

81%

Draw or Sisaket

66%

Winning margin

Bankhai United wins by 2+

19%

Sisaket wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Bankhai United 1+ goals

89%

Bankhai United 2+ goals

65%

Bankhai United 3+ goals

39%

Sisaket 1+ goals

93%

Sisaket 2+ goals

73%

Sisaket 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Bankhai United (draw refunded)

42%

Sisaket (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bankhai United at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sisaket away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bankhai United attack 4.25 + Sisaket defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sisaket attack 3.50 + Bankhai United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bankhai United scores more

34%

level

19%

Sisaket scores more

47%

Sisaket at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff