Bankhai United 4–3 See Kwae: Result & Stats

Bankhai United

4 – 3

See Kwae

5/1/2019

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bankhai United61%

×Draw17%

See Kwae22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bankhai UnitedExpected goals in this matchSee Kwae

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.88

Bankhai United

3.13

See Kwae

1.88

Bankhai United creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

4.25

creates per match

2.00

1.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bankhai United

4.25

See Kwae

2.00

allows per match

Bankhai United

1.75

See Kwae

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bankhai United+0.00on par

See Kwae+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankhai United ↓

See Kwae →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Bankhai United or draw

78%

Bankhai United or See Kwae

83%

Draw or See Kwae

39%

Winning margin

Bankhai United wins by 2+

42%

See Kwae wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bankhai United 1+ goals

95%

Bankhai United 2+ goals

81%

Bankhai United 3+ goals

59%

See Kwae 1+ goals

85%

See Kwae 2+ goals

56%

See Kwae 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bankhai United (draw refunded)

74%

See Kwae (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bankhai United at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

See Kwae away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bankhai United attack 4.25 + See Kwae defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

See Kwae attack 2.00 + Bankhai United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bankhai United scores more

61%

level

17%

See Kwae scores more

22%

Bankhai United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bankhai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff