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Bankhai United vs Nakhon Pathom — FA Cup 2018

Bankhai United
Bankhai United
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathomadvanced
12/20/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bankhai United59%
×Draw18%
Nakhon Pathom22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bankhai United
2.63
Nakhon Pathom
1.59

Bankhai United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bankhai United
4.25
Nakhon Pathom
1.43

allows per match

Bankhai United
1.75
Nakhon Pathom
1.00

finishing

Bankhai United+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankhai United ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Bankhai United or draw
78%
Bankhai United or Nakhon Pathom
82%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
41%

Winning margin

Bankhai United wins by 2+
39%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bankhai United 1+ goals
93%
Bankhai United 2+ goals
73%
Bankhai United 3+ goals
48%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
80%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
47%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bankhai United (draw refunded)
73%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankhai United at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankhai United attack 4.25 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.43 + Bankhai United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bankhai United scores more
59%
level
18%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
22%

Bankhai United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bankhai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Bankhai United 1–1 Nakhon Pathom

Bankhai United and Nakhon Pathom drew 1-1 in FA Cup on December 20, 2025.