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Bankhai United vs Ayutthaya FC — League Cup 2021

Bankhai United
Bankhai United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FCadvanced
12/27/2025League CupLeague Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bankhai United33%
×Draw35%
Ayutthaya FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bankhai United
0.83
Ayutthaya FC
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bankhai United
1.00
Ayutthaya FC
1.00

allows per match

Bankhai United
0.67
Ayutthaya FC
0.67

finishing

Bankhai United+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankhai United ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Bankhai United or draw
67%
Bankhai United or Ayutthaya FC
65%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
67%

Winning margin

Bankhai United wins by 2+
11%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bankhai United 1+ goals
56%
Bankhai United 2+ goals
20%
Bankhai United 3+ goals
5%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
56%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
20%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bankhai United (draw refunded)
50%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankhai United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankhai United attack 1.00 + Ayutthaya FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.00 + Bankhai United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Bankhai United scores more
33%
level
35%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
33%

Bankhai United at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Bankhai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bankhai United vs Ayutthaya FC

Ayutthaya FC beat Bankhai United 1-0 in League Cup on December 27, 2025.