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Bankhai United vs ACDC — League Cup 2021

Bankhai United
Bankhai United
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ACDC
ACDC
9/8/2024League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundWai Krong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bankhai United49%
×Draw24%
ACDC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bankhai United
1.67
ACDC
1.17

Bankhai United creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bankhai United
1.00
ACDC
1.67

allows per match

Bankhai United
0.67
ACDC
2.33

finishing

Bankhai United+0.00on par
ACDC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankhai United ↓

ACDC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bankhai United or draw
73%
Bankhai United or ACDC
76%
Draw or ACDC
51%

Winning margin

Bankhai United wins by 2+
26%
ACDC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bankhai United 1+ goals
81%
Bankhai United 2+ goals
50%
Bankhai United 3+ goals
23%
ACDC 1+ goals
69%
ACDC 2+ goals
33%
ACDC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bankhai United (draw refunded)
65%
ACDC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankhai United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

ACDC away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankhai United attack 1.00 + ACDC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

ACDC attack 1.67 + Bankhai United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bankhai United scores more
49%
level
24%
ACDC scores more
27%

Bankhai United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bankhai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Bankhai United 2–2 ACDC

Bankhai United and ACDC drew 2-2 in League Cup on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Wai Krong Stadium in Rayong.