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Bánk vs Újpest II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Bánk
Bánk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Újpest II
Újpest II
K. Kiss 5'
A. Burzi 62'
B. Balazs 55'
A. Lukats 40'
3/12/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 25Szabadkikötő SE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bánk23%
×Draw22%
Újpest II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bánk
1.21
Újpest II
2.02

Újpest II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Bánk
0.74
Újpest II
1.51

allows per match

Bánk
2.53
Újpest II
1.69

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bánk or draw
44%
Bánk or Újpest II
78%
Draw or Újpest II
77%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+
9%
Újpest II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals
70%
Bánk 2+ goals
34%
Bánk 3+ goals
12%
Újpest II 1+ goals
87%
Újpest II 2+ goals
60%
Újpest II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)
29%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + Újpest II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.21

Újpest II attack 1.51 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bánk scores more
23%
level
22%
Újpest II scores more
56%

Újpest II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
K. Kiss
40'
A. Lukats
55'
B. Balazs
62'
A. Burzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Bánk 1–3 Újpest II

Újpest II beat Bánk 3-1 in NB III - Northwest on March 12, 2023.

Goals: K. Kiss (5'), A. Lukats (40'), B. Balazs (55'), A. Burzi (62').

The match was played at Szabadkikötő SE Sporttelep in Budapest.