Bánk 0–1 Szolnoki MAV FC: Result & Stats

Bánk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Szolnoki MAV FC

2/19/2023

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 22FC Dabas Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bánk27%

×Draw23%

Szolnoki MAV FC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BánkExpected goals in this matchSzolnoki MAV FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.82

Bánk

1.26

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.82

Szolnoki MAV FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

0.74

creates per match

1.11

2.53

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Bánk

0.74

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.11

allows per match

Bánk

2.53

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bánk or draw

50%

Bánk or Szolnoki MAV FC

77%

Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC

73%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+

11%

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals

72%

Bánk 2+ goals

36%

Bánk 3+ goals

13%

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals

84%

Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals

54%

Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)

34%

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.26

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.11 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bánk scores more

27%

level

23%

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more

50%

Szolnoki MAV FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Szolnoki MAV FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff