Bánk 1–2 Paksi SE II: Result & Stats

Bánk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Paksi SE II

4/2/2023

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 29Berkenyei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bánk22%

×Draw22%

Paksi SE II56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BánkExpected goals in this matchPaksi SE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.00

Bánk

1.19

Paksi SE II

2.00

Paksi SE II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

0.74

creates per match

1.48

2.53

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bánk

0.74

Paksi SE II

1.48

allows per match

Bánk

2.53

Paksi SE II

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par

Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

Paksi SE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bánk or draw

44%

Bánk or Paksi SE II

78%

Draw or Paksi SE II

78%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+

9%

Paksi SE II wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals

70%

Bánk 2+ goals

33%

Bánk 3+ goals

12%

Paksi SE II 1+ goals

86%

Paksi SE II 2+ goals

59%

Paksi SE II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)

29%

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + Paksi SE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Paksi SE II attack 1.48 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bánk scores more

22%

level

22%

Paksi SE II scores more

56%

Paksi SE II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Paksi SE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff