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Bánk vs MTK Budapest II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Bánk
Bánk
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II
10/1/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 11Berkenyei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bánk16%
×Draw20%
MTK Budapest II64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bánk
0.99
MTK Budapest II
2.15

MTK Budapest II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bánk
0.74
MTK Budapest II
1.78

allows per match

Bánk
2.53
MTK Budapest II
1.25

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par
MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

MTK Budapest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bánk or draw
36%
Bánk or MTK Budapest II
80%
Draw or MTK Budapest II
84%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+
6%
MTK Budapest II wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals
63%
Bánk 2+ goals
26%
Bánk 3+ goals
8%
MTK Budapest II 1+ goals
88%
MTK Budapest II 2+ goals
63%
MTK Budapest II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)
21%
MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

MTK Budapest II away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

MTK Budapest II attack 1.78 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bánk scores more
16%
level
20%
MTK Budapest II scores more
64%

MTK Budapest II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bánk vs MTK Budapest II

MTK Budapest II beat Bánk 4-1 in NB III - Northwest on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Berkenyei Sportpálya in Berkenye.