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Bánk vs ESMTK — NB III - Northwest 2019

Bánk
Bánk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
ESMTK
ESMTK
J. Molnar 76', 67'
B. Soos 58'
12/4/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 20Berkenyei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bánk19%
×Draw22%
ESMTK59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bánk
0.99
ESMTK
1.90

ESMTK creates 92% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bánk
0.74
ESMTK
1.27

allows per match

Bánk
2.53
ESMTK
1.24

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par
ESMTK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

ESMTK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bánk or draw
41%
Bánk or ESMTK
78%
Draw or ESMTK
81%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+
7%
ESMTK wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals
63%
Bánk 2+ goals
26%
Bánk 3+ goals
8%
ESMTK 1+ goals
85%
ESMTK 2+ goals
56%
ESMTK 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)
25%
ESMTK (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

ESMTK away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + ESMTK defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.99

ESMTK attack 1.27 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bánk scores more
19%
level
22%
ESMTK scores more
59%

ESMTK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
B. Soos
67'
J. Molnar
76'
J. Molnar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bánk 0 – 3 ESMTK

ESMTK beat Bánk 3-0 in NB III - Northwest on December 4, 2022.

Goals: B. Soos (58'), J. Molnar (67', 76').

The match was played at Berkenyei Sportpálya in Berkenye.