Banjul 0–0 Waa Banjul Football: Result & Stats

Banjul

FT

0 – 0

Waa Banjul Football

5/25/2022

GFA League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Banjul34%

×Draw37%

Waa Banjul Football30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanjulExpected goals in this matchWaa Banjul Football

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

0.71

Banjul

0.78

Waa Banjul Football

0.71

Banjul creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 58 away

0.73

creates per match

0.59

0.84

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Banjul

0.73

Waa Banjul Football

0.59

allows per match

Banjul

0.84

Waa Banjul Football

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banjul+0.00on par

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banjul ↓

Waa Banjul Football →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–116%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Banjul or draw

70%

Banjul or Waa Banjul Football

63%

Draw or Waa Banjul Football

66%

Winning margin

Banjul wins by 2+

11%

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Banjul 1+ goals

54%

Banjul 2+ goals

18%

Banjul 3+ goals

4%

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals

51%

Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals

16%

Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Banjul (draw refunded)

53%

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banjul at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.84 · 73 matches

Waa Banjul Football away — creates 0.59, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banjul attack 0.73 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.59 + Banjul defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Banjul scores more

34%

level

37%

Waa Banjul Football scores more

30%

Banjul at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff