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Banjul vs Milan — GFA League 2020

Banjul
Banjul
FT
0 – 0
Milan
Milan
6/14/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Banjul34%
×Draw35%
Milan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banjul
0.86
Milan
0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

creates per match

Banjul
0.73
Milan
0.77

allows per match

Banjul
0.84
Milan
1.00

finishing

Banjul+0.00on par
Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banjul ↓

Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Banjul or draw
69%
Banjul or Milan
65%
Draw or Milan
66%

Winning margin

Banjul wins by 2+
12%
Milan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Banjul 1+ goals
58%
Banjul 2+ goals
21%
Banjul 3+ goals
6%
Milan 1+ goals
55%
Milan 2+ goals
19%
Milan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Banjul (draw refunded)
53%
Milan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banjul at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.84 · 73 matches

Milan away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banjul attack 0.73 + Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Milan attack 0.77 + Banjul defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Banjul scores more
34%
level
35%
Milan scores more
31%

Banjul at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Banjul 0 – 0 Milan

Banjul and Milan drew 0-0 in GFA League on June 14, 2021.