Baník Souš 2–1 Ústí nad Labem: Result & Stats

Baník Souš

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ústí nad Labem

6/7/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 30Fotbalový stadion Josefa Masopusta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Baník Souš42%

×Draw24%

Ústí nad Labem34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník SoušExpected goals in this matchÚstí nad Labem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.43

Baník Souš

1.60

Ústí nad Labem

1.43

Baník Souš creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 46 away

1.61

creates per match

1.83

1.03

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Baník Souš

1.61

Ústí nad Labem

1.83

allows per match

Baník Souš

1.03

Ústí nad Labem

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Souš+0.00on par

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Souš ↓

Ústí nad Labem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Baník Souš or draw

66%

Baník Souš or Ústí nad Labem

76%

Draw or Ústí nad Labem

58%

Winning margin

Baník Souš wins by 2+

21%

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Baník Souš 1+ goals

80%

Baník Souš 2+ goals

47%

Baník Souš 3+ goals

22%

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

76%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

42%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Baník Souš (draw refunded)

55%

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Souš at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Souš attack 1.61 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.83 + Baník Souš defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baník Souš scores more

42%

level

24%

Ústí nad Labem scores more

34%

Baník Souš at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff