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Baník Souš vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Baník Souš
Baník Souš
FT
6 – 1
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
10/2/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 10Stadion Zdeňka Fibicha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Baník Souš83%
×Draw11%
Tatran Rakovník6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Souš
3.13
Tatran Rakovník
0.76

Baník Souš creates 312% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Baník Souš
2.88
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Baník Souš
0.76
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Baník Souš+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Souš ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Baník Souš or draw
94%
Baník Souš or Tatran Rakovník
89%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
17%

Winning margin

Baník Souš wins by 2+
64%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Baník Souš 1+ goals
95%
Baník Souš 2+ goals
81%
Baník Souš 3+ goals
59%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
53%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
18%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baník Souš (draw refunded)
93%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Souš at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Souš attack 2.88 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.13

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Baník Souš defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Baník Souš scores more
83%
level
11%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
6%

Baník Souš at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Baník Souš 6–1 Tatran Rakovník

Baník Souš beat Tatran Rakovník 6-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Zdeňka Fibicha in Most.