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Baník Souš vs Kolín — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Baník Souš
Baník Souš
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kolín
Kolín
11/1/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 13Stadion Josefa Masopusta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Baník Souš55%
×Draw23%
Kolín22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Souš
1.82
Kolín
1.08

Baník Souš creates 69% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Baník Souš
1.61
Kolín
1.13

allows per match

Baník Souš
1.03
Kolín
2.03

finishing

Baník Souš+0.00on par
Kolín+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Souš ↓

Kolín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Baník Souš or draw
78%
Baník Souš or Kolín
77%
Draw or Kolín
45%

Winning margin

Baník Souš wins by 2+
31%
Kolín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baník Souš 1+ goals
84%
Baník Souš 2+ goals
54%
Baník Souš 3+ goals
27%
Kolín 1+ goals
66%
Kolín 2+ goals
29%
Kolín 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baník Souš (draw refunded)
71%
Kolín (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Souš at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Kolín away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Souš attack 1.61 + Kolín defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kolín attack 1.13 + Baník Souš defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Baník Souš scores more
55%
level
23%
Kolín scores more
22%

Baník Souš at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Souš vs Kolín

Baník Souš beat Kolín 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Josefa Masopusta in Most.