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Baník Sokolov vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Baník Sokolov
Baník Sokolov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Stadion FK Baník Sokolov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baník Sokolov56%
×Draw19%
Mariánské Lázně25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Sokolov
2.56
Mariánské Lázně
1.68

Baník Sokolov creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 55 away

creates per match

Baník Sokolov
2.87
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Baník Sokolov
1.87
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Baník Sokolov+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Sokolov ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Baník Sokolov or draw
75%
Baník Sokolov or Mariánské Lázně
81%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
44%

Winning margin

Baník Sokolov wins by 2+
36%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baník Sokolov 1+ goals
92%
Baník Sokolov 2+ goals
72%
Baník Sokolov 3+ goals
46%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
81%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
50%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)
69%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Sokolov at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Sokolov attack 2.87 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.56

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Baník Sokolov defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baník Sokolov scores more
56%
level
19%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
25%

Baník Sokolov at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baník Sokolov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Sokolov vs Mariánské Lázně

Baník Sokolov beat Mariánské Lázně 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Baník Sokolov in Sokolov.