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Baník Sokolov vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Baník Sokolov
Baník Sokolov
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
3/9/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Stadion FK Baník Sokolov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baník Sokolov40%
×Draw21%
Aritma Praha38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Sokolov
1.98
Aritma Praha
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Baník Sokolov
2.87
Aritma Praha
1.98

allows per match

Baník Sokolov
1.87
Aritma Praha
1.09

finishing

Baník Sokolov+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Sokolov ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Baník Sokolov or draw
62%
Baník Sokolov or Aritma Praha
79%
Draw or Aritma Praha
60%

Winning margin

Baník Sokolov wins by 2+
22%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Baník Sokolov 1+ goals
86%
Baník Sokolov 2+ goals
59%
Baník Sokolov 3+ goals
31%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
85%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
57%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)
51%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Sokolov at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Sokolov attack 2.87 + Aritma Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.98

Aritma Praha attack 1.98 + Baník Sokolov defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baník Sokolov scores more
40%
level
21%
Aritma Praha scores more
38%

Baník Sokolov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baník Sokolov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baník Sokolov 3 – 3 Aritma Praha

Baník Sokolov and Aritma Praha drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Baník Sokolov in Sokolov.