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Baník Ostrava W vs Slovácko W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
FT
0 – 7
Slovácko W
Slovácko W
9/17/20221. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 4Radvanice Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Ostrava W21%
×Draw20%
Slovácko W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava W
1.29
Slovácko W
2.29

Slovácko W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava W
1.00
Slovácko W
1.90

allows per match

Baník Ostrava W
2.67
Slovácko W
1.57

finishing

Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par
Slovácko W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava W ↓

Slovácko W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava W or draw
40%
Baník Ostrava W or Slovácko W
80%
Draw or Slovácko W
79%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
8%
Slovácko W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
72%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
37%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
14%
Slovácko W 1+ goals
90%
Slovácko W 2+ goals
66%
Slovácko W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
26%
Slovácko W (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

Slovácko W away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.00 + Slovácko W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Slovácko W attack 1.90 + Baník Ostrava W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Baník Ostrava W scores more
21%
level
20%
Slovácko W scores more
60%

Slovácko W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slovácko W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava W vs Slovácko W

Slovácko W beat Baník Ostrava W 7-0 in 1. Liga Women on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Radvanice Stadion in Radvanice.