Baník Ostrava W 1–2 Pardubice W: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava W

FT

1 – 2

Pardubice W

5/18/2024

1. Liga Women · Relegation Round - 5Radvanice Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Ostrava W51%

×Draw19%

Pardubice W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava WExpected goals in this matchPardubice W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.95

Baník Ostrava W

2.56

Pardubice W

1.95

Baník Ostrava W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 40 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

2.67

allows per match

4.13

creates per match

Baník Ostrava W

1.00

Pardubice W

1.23

allows per match

Baník Ostrava W

2.67

Pardubice W

4.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par

Pardubice W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava W ↓

Pardubice W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava W or draw

70%

Baník Ostrava W or Pardubice W

81%

Draw or Pardubice W

49%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+

32%

Pardubice W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals

92%

Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals

72%

Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals

46%

Pardubice W 1+ goals

86%

Pardubice W 2+ goals

58%

Pardubice W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)

63%

Pardubice W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

Pardubice W away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.00 + Pardubice W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.56

Pardubice W attack 1.23 + Baník Ostrava W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baník Ostrava W scores more

51%

level

19%

Pardubice W scores more

30%

Baník Ostrava W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baník Ostrava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava W vs Pardubice W

Pardubice W beat Baník Ostrava W 2-1 in 1. Liga Women on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Radvanice Stadion in Radvanice.

Baník Ostrava W vs Pardubice W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava W vs Pardubice W