Baník Ostrava vs Senica: Preview & Prediction

Baník Ostrava

CANC

08:00

Senica

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Baník Ostrava68%

×Draw19%

Senica13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchSenica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.83

Baník Ostrava

2.20

Senica

0.83

Baník Ostrava creates 165% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.89

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

2.89

Senica

1.00

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

0.67

Senica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

Senica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Senica →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

87%

Baník Ostrava or Senica

81%

Draw or Senica

32%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

44%

Senica wins by 2+

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

89%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

64%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

37%

Senica 1+ goals

56%

Senica 2+ goals

20%

Senica 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

84%

Senica (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Senica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.89 + Senica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.20

Senica attack 1.00 + Baník Ostrava defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

68%

level

19%

Senica scores more

13%

Baník Ostrava at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baník Ostrava face Senica (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Baník Ostrava hosting Senica. Match starts July 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Baník Ostrava host Senica at Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Baník Ostrava vs Senica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Baník Ostrava face Senica (Friendlies Clubs)