Baník Ostrava vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Baník Ostrava55%
Plzen24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Baník Ostrava creates 59% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Baník Ostrava ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.28 · 7 matches
Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Baník Ostrava attack 2.11 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.13
Plzen attack 1.41 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Baník Ostrava at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Slavia PrahaPlzen
Sparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Slovan LiberecBaník Ostrava
České Budějovice
Bohemians 1905
Slovácko
Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
Zlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Baník Ostrava host Plzen on Saturday, 20 November 2021 at 17:00. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Czech Liga: Baník Ostrava 2–2 Plzen
Baník Ostrava and Plzen drew 2-2 in Czech Liga on November 20, 2021.
Goals: J. Mosquera (12'), J. Beauguel (36' pen), Jiří Klíma (67', 83').
Baník Ostrava controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 9.
The match was played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Ostrava.