Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baník Ostrava U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zbrojovka Brno U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
S. Drozd 90'
T. Frydl 70'
J. Pira 53'
D. Nezveda 58'
6/8/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 30Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1954%
×Draw21%
Zbrojovka Brno U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
2.14
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.42

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.62

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.91

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Zbrojovka Brno U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
75%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Zbrojovka Brno U19
79%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno U19
46%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
32%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
88%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
63%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
36%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals
76%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals
41%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Zbrojovka Brno U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.91 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.14

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 1.62 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
54%
level
21%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more
25%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
J. Pira
58'
D. Nezveda
70'
T. Frydl
90'
S. Drozd

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Zbrojovka Brno U19 3-1 in 1. Liga U19 on June 8, 2024.

Goals: J. Pira (53'), D. Nezveda (58'), T. Frydl (70'), S. Drozd (90').

The match was played at Areál SC Vista in Ostrava.