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Baník Ostrava U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
Preview
13:30
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
10/17/20261. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 11
Big match
51%
Baník Ostrava U19
model favours
51%22%27%

Top-of-the-table clash — Baník Ostrava U19 2 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 3

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1951%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Plzeň U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
2.00
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.40

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.57

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.62

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
73%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
78%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
49%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
30%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
86%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
59%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
32%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
75%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
41%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
51%
level
22%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
27%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U19
WWLDW
U19
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baník Ostrava U19 face Viktoria Plzeň U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Baník Ostrava U19 hosting Viktoria Plzeň U19. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.