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Baník Ostrava U19 vs Slovan Liberec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Liberec U19
Slovan Liberec U19
J. Remias 56'
F. Podhorny 19'
J. Zelingr 1'
11/4/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 14SC Vista UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1962%
×Draw19%
Slovan Liberec U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
2.42
Slovan Liberec U19
1.27

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 45 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Slovan Liberec U19
1.31

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Slovan Liberec U19
2.47

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Slovan Liberec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
81%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Slovan Liberec U19
81%
Draw or Slovan Liberec U19
38%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
41%
Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
91%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
69%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
43%
Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals
72%
Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals
36%
Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Slovan Liberec U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.42

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 1.31 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
62%
level
19%
Slovan Liberec U19 scores more
19%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
J. Zelingr
19'
F. Podhorny
56'
J. Remias

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava U19 vs Slovan Liberec U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Slovan Liberec U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on November 4, 2023.

Goals: J. Zelingr (1'), F. Podhorny (19'), J. Remias (56').

The match was played at SC Vista UMT in Ostrava.