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Baník Ostrava U19 vs Slovácko U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
Preview
15:00
Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
8/22/20261. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 3
Big match
57%
Baník Ostrava U19
model favours
57%21%22%

Baník Ostrava U19 sit 2, Slovácko U19 12 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1957%
×Draw21%
Slovácko U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
2.13
Slovácko U19
1.26

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Slovácko U19
1.30

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Slovácko U19
1.89

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Slovácko U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
78%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Slovácko U19
79%
Draw or Slovácko U19
43%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
35%
Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
88%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
63%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
35%
Slovácko U19 1+ goals
72%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
36%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.13

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
57%
level
21%
Slovácko U19 scores more
22%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U19
WWLDW
U19
LLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baník Ostrava U19 face Slovácko U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Baník Ostrava U19 hosting Slovácko U19. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.