Baník Ostrava U19 0–1 Slovácko U19: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slovácko U19

D. Barat 20'

10/19/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 11Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1957%

×Draw21%

Slovácko U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava U19Expected goals in this matchSlovácko U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.26

Baník Ostrava U19

2.13

Slovácko U19

1.26

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

2.37

creates per match

1.30

1.22

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19

2.37

Slovácko U19

1.30

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19

1.22

Slovácko U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Slovácko U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw

78%

Baník Ostrava U19 or Slovácko U19

79%

Draw or Slovácko U19

43%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

35%

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

88%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

63%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

35%

Slovácko U19 1+ goals

72%

Slovácko U19 2+ goals

36%

Slovácko U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.13

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Slovácko U19 scores more

22%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. Hrbacek

20'

D. Barat

48'

T. Frydl

60'

C. Lores← C. Lores

64'

O. Stecha

65'

J. Snopek← J. Snopek

65'

F. Stanek← F. Stanek

80'

V. Kremr← V. Kremr

80'

A. Barta← A. Barta

80'

M. Glamos← M. Glamos

80'

M. Kulyk← M. Kulyk

86'

V. Petr← V. Petr

90+4'

J. Micek

90+5'

B. Musil

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff