Baník Ostrava U19 4–0 Meteor Praha U19

Baník Ostrava U19

FT

4 – 0

Meteor Praha U19

9/11/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 7Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1972%

×Draw16%

Meteor Praha U1912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava U19Expected goals in this matchMeteor Praha U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.02

Baník Ostrava U19

2.66

Meteor Praha U19

1.02

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 161% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 18 away

2.37

creates per match

0.83

1.22

allows per match

2.94

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19

2.37

Meteor Praha U19

0.83

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19

1.22

Meteor Praha U19

2.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Meteor Praha U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw

88%

Baník Ostrava U19 or Meteor Praha U19

84%

Draw or Meteor Praha U19

28%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

50%

Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

93%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

74%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

49%

Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals

64%

Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals

27%

Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Meteor Praha U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.66

Meteor Praha U19 attack 0.83 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

72%

level

16%

Meteor Praha U19 scores more

12%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff