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Baník Ostrava U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
11/9/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 7Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1944%
×Draw22%
Jindřichův Hradec34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
1.91
Jindřichův Hradec
1.67

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 64 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Jindřichův Hradec
2.13

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
66%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
78%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
56%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
24%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
85%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
57%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
30%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
81%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
50%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.91

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.13 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
44%
level
22%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
34%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Baník Ostrava U19 2–1 Jindřichův Hradec

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Jindřichův Hradec 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Areál SC Vista in Ostrava.