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Baník Ostrava U19 vs Jablonec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
F. Bezdrob 90'
C. Lores 78'
M. Glamos 57', 54'
L. Dvoracek 32'
T. Kowalczyk 23'
4/25/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 23Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1962%
×Draw19%
Jablonec U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
2.32
Jablonec U19
1.21

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Jablonec U19
1.20

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Jablonec U19
2.27

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
81%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Jablonec U19
81%
Draw or Jablonec U19
38%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
40%
Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
90%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
67%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
40%
Jablonec U19 1+ goals
70%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
34%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.32

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
62%
level
19%
Jablonec U19 scores more
19%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
T. Kowalczyk
32'
L. Dvoracek
34'
T. Kowalczyk
54'
M. Glamos
57'
M. Glamos
60'
M. Kulyk← M. Kulyk
60'
L. Matusinsky← L. Matusinsky
60'
V. Pancev← V. Pancev
60'
S. Novotny← S. Novotny
60'
S. A. Emmanuel← S. A. Emmanuel
64'
J. Graclik← J. Graclik
64'
S. Ninac← S. Ninac
67'
P. Kucera← P. Kucera
75'
C. Lores← C. Lores
78'
C. Lores
90'
F. Bezdrob

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava U19 vs Jablonec U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Jablonec U19 6-0 in 1. Liga U19 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: T. Kowalczyk (23'), L. Dvoracek (32'), M. Glamos (54', 57'), C. Lores (78'), F. Bezdrob (90').

The match was played at Areál SC Vista in Ostrava.