Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–1 Častkovce

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Častkovce

5/24/2025

3. liga - West · West - 33Futbalový štadión OFK Baník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom56%

×Draw23%

Častkovce21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Lehota p.VtáčnikomExpected goals in this matchČastkovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.03

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.81

Častkovce

1.03

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom creates 76% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 85 away

1.97

creates per match

1.32

0.74

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.97

Častkovce

1.32

allows per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.74

Častkovce

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ↓

Častkovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or draw

79%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or Častkovce

77%

Draw or Častkovce

44%

Winning margin

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

31%

Častkovce wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

84%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

54%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

27%

Častkovce 1+ goals

64%

Častkovce 2+ goals

28%

Častkovce 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

72%

Častkovce (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 1.97 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.81

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

56%

level

23%

Častkovce scores more

21%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff