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Baník Kalinovo vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
CANC
13:30
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
4/4/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 17Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Baník Kalinovo62%
×Draw19%
Žarnovica19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Kalinovo
2.37
Žarnovica
1.24

Baník Kalinovo creates 91% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.61
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.44
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw
81%
Baník Kalinovo or Žarnovica
81%
Draw or Žarnovica
38%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
40%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
91%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
68%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
42%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
71%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
35%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
77%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.61 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.37

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more
62%
level
19%
Žarnovica scores more
19%

Baník Kalinovo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Baník Kalinovo host Žarnovica

April 4, 2021: Baník Kalinovo take on Žarnovica in 3. liga - Center. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Baník Kalinovo host Žarnovica at Štadión Kalinovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.