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Baník Kalinovo vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
FT
1 – 0
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
4/9/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 21Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baník Kalinovo60%
×Draw21%
Slovan Giraltovce19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Kalinovo
1.99
Slovan Giraltovce
1.02

Baník Kalinovo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.64
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.55
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw
81%
Baník Kalinovo or Slovan Giraltovce
79%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
40%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
36%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
86%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
59%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
32%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
64%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
27%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
76%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.64 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.99

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more
60%
level
21%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
19%

Baník Kalinovo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Kalinovo vs Slovan Giraltovce

Baník Kalinovo beat Slovan Giraltovce 1-0 in 3. liga - East on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Kalinovo in Kalinovo.