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Baník Kalinovo vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
FT
4 – 1
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
9/1/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 14Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Baník Kalinovo60%
×Draw20%
Liptovský Hrádok20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Kalinovo
2.23
Liptovský Hrádok
1.22

Baník Kalinovo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 22 away

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.61
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.44
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw
80%
Baník Kalinovo or Liptovský Hrádok
80%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
40%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
38%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
89%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
65%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
38%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
70%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
34%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
75%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.61 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.23

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more
60%
level
20%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
20%

Baník Kalinovo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Kalinovo vs Liptovský Hrádok

Baník Kalinovo beat Liptovský Hrádok 4-1 in 3. liga - Center on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Kalinovo in Kalinovo.