Baník Kalinovo 1–0 Liptovská Štiavnica

Baník Kalinovo

FT

1 – 0

Liptovská Štiavnica

8/15/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 3Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Baník Kalinovo63%

×Draw20%

Liptovská Štiavnica17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník KalinovoExpected goals in this matchLiptovská Štiavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.09

Baník Kalinovo

2.24

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.09

Baník Kalinovo creates 106% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

1.61

creates per match

0.74

1.44

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo

1.61

Liptovská Štiavnica

0.74

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo

1.44

Liptovská Štiavnica

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw

83%

Baník Kalinovo or Liptovská Štiavnica

80%

Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica

37%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+

40%

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals

89%

Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals

65%

Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals

38%

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals

66%

Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals

30%

Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)

78%

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.61 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.24

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more

63%

level

20%

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more

17%

Baník Kalinovo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff