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Bani Gansè vs JAK — Championnat National 2019

Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
FT
1 – 0
JAK
JAK
3/11/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 5Stade de Banikoara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bani Gansè51%
×Draw29%
JAK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bani Gansè
1.29
JAK
0.69

Bani Gansè creates 87% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 49 away

creates per match

Bani Gansè
1.20
JAK
0.73

allows per match

Bani Gansè
0.64
JAK
1.37

finishing

Bani Gansè+0.00on par
JAK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bani Gansè ↓

JAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bani Gansè or draw
80%
Bani Gansè or JAK
71%
Draw or JAK
49%

Winning margin

Bani Gansè wins by 2+
24%
JAK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bani Gansè 1+ goals
72%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
37%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
14%
JAK 1+ goals
50%
JAK 2+ goals
15%
JAK 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
72%
JAK (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bani Gansè at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.64 · 74 matches

JAK away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bani Gansè attack 1.20 + JAK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

JAK attack 0.73 + Bani Gansè defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bani Gansè scores more
51%
level
29%
JAK scores more
20%

Bani Gansè at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bani Gansè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bani Gansè vs JAK

Bani Gansè beat JAK 1-0 in Championnat National on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Banikoara in Banikoara.