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Bani Gansè vs Espoir Savalou — Championnat National 2019

Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Espoir Savalou
Espoir Savalou
10/27/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 5Stade de Banikoara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bani Gansè43%
×Draw31%
Espoir Savalou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bani Gansè
1.11
Espoir Savalou
0.77

Bani Gansè creates 44% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 101 away

creates per match

Bani Gansè
1.20
Espoir Savalou
0.89

allows per match

Bani Gansè
0.64
Espoir Savalou
1.03

finishing

Bani Gansè+0.00on par
Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bani Gansè ↓

Espoir Savalou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bani Gansè or draw
75%
Bani Gansè or Espoir Savalou
69%
Draw or Espoir Savalou
57%

Winning margin

Bani Gansè wins by 2+
18%
Espoir Savalou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bani Gansè 1+ goals
67%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
30%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
10%
Espoir Savalou 1+ goals
54%
Espoir Savalou 2+ goals
18%
Espoir Savalou 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
63%
Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bani Gansè at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.64 · 74 matches

Espoir Savalou away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bani Gansè attack 1.20 + Espoir Savalou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Espoir Savalou attack 0.89 + Bani Gansè defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bani Gansè scores more
43%
level
31%
Espoir Savalou scores more
25%

Bani Gansè at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bani Gansè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Bani Gansè 1–0 Espoir Savalou

Bani Gansè beat Espoir Savalou 1-0 in Championnat National on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Banikoara in Banikoara.