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Bani Gansè vs Dadjè — Championnat National 2019

Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
FT
1 – 3
Dadjè
Dadjè
12/14/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bani Gansè47%
×Draw30%
Dadjè23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bani Gansè
1.22
Dadjè
0.77

Bani Gansè creates 58% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 106 away

creates per match

Bani Gansè
1.20
Dadjè
0.89

allows per match

Bani Gansè
0.64
Dadjè
1.24

finishing

Bani Gansè+0.00on par
Dadjè+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bani Gansè ↓

Dadjè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bani Gansè or draw
77%
Bani Gansè or Dadjè
70%
Draw or Dadjè
53%

Winning margin

Bani Gansè wins by 2+
21%
Dadjè wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bani Gansè 1+ goals
70%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
34%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
12%
Dadjè 1+ goals
54%
Dadjè 2+ goals
18%
Dadjè 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
67%
Dadjè (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bani Gansè at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.64 · 74 matches

Dadjè away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.24 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bani Gansè attack 1.20 + Dadjè defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dadjè attack 0.89 + Bani Gansè defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bani Gansè scores more
47%
level
30%
Dadjè scores more
23%

Bani Gansè at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bani Gansè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bani Gansè vs Dadjè

Dadjè beat Bani Gansè 3-1 in Championnat National on December 14, 2025.