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Bani Gansè vs ASPAC — Championnat National 2019

Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASPAC
ASPAC
3/2/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 5Stade de Banikoara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bani Gansè41%
×Draw33%
ASPAC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bani Gansè
1.03
ASPAC
0.75

Bani Gansè creates 37% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bani Gansè
1.20
ASPAC
0.86

allows per match

Bani Gansè
0.64
ASPAC
0.86

finishing

Bani Gansè+0.00on par
ASPAC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bani Gansè ↓

ASPAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Bani Gansè or draw
74%
Bani Gansè or ASPAC
67%
Draw or ASPAC
59%

Winning margin

Bani Gansè wins by 2+
16%
ASPAC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bani Gansè 1+ goals
64%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
28%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
9%
ASPAC 1+ goals
53%
ASPAC 2+ goals
17%
ASPAC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
61%
ASPAC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bani Gansè at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.64 · 74 matches

ASPAC away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bani Gansè attack 1.20 + ASPAC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

ASPAC attack 0.86 + Bani Gansè defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bani Gansè scores more
41%
level
33%
ASPAC scores more
26%

Bani Gansè at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bani Gansè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bani Gansè vs ASPAC

Bani Gansè beat ASPAC 1-0 in Championnat National on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Banikoara in Banikoara.