Bangwe All Stars 3–2 Silver Strikers

Bangwe All Stars

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Silver Strikers

8/20/2023

Super League · Round 15Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bangwe All Stars31%

×Draw32%

Silver Strikers38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangwe All StarsExpected goals in this matchSilver Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.02

Bangwe All Stars

0.89

Silver Strikers

1.02

Silver Strikers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

1.07

creates per match

1.17

0.87

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Bangwe All Stars

1.07

Silver Strikers

1.17

allows per match

Bangwe All Stars

0.87

Silver Strikers

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangwe All Stars ↓

Silver Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bangwe All Stars or draw

62%

Bangwe All Stars or Silver Strikers

68%

Draw or Silver Strikers

69%

Winning margin

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

11%

Silver Strikers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

59%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

22%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

6%

Silver Strikers 1+ goals

64%

Silver Strikers 2+ goals

27%

Silver Strikers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

45%

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangwe All Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Silver Strikers away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.70 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangwe All Stars attack 1.07 + Silver Strikers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Silver Strikers attack 1.17 + Bangwe All Stars defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bangwe All Stars scores more

31%

level

32%

Silver Strikers scores more

38%

Silver Strikers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff