Bangwe All Stars 3–0 Chitipa United: Result & Stats

Bangwe All Stars

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chitipa United

6/2/2024

Super League · Round 8Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bangwe All Stars52%

×Draw29%

Chitipa United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangwe All StarsExpected goals in this matchChitipa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.68

Bangwe All Stars

1.31

Chitipa United

0.68

Bangwe All Stars creates 93% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 65 away

1.07

creates per match

0.48

0.87

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bangwe All Stars

1.07

Chitipa United

0.48

allows per match

Bangwe All Stars

0.87

Chitipa United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangwe All Stars ↓

Chitipa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bangwe All Stars or draw

81%

Bangwe All Stars or Chitipa United

71%

Draw or Chitipa United

48%

Winning margin

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

25%

Chitipa United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

73%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

38%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

14%

Chitipa United 1+ goals

49%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

15%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

73%

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangwe All Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangwe All Stars attack 1.07 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Bangwe All Stars defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bangwe All Stars scores more

52%

level

29%

Chitipa United scores more

19%

Bangwe All Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bangwe All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff