Bangu 1–1 Boavista SC: Result & Stats | League #624

Bangu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Boavista SC

Walber 88' (pen)

Bruno Jesus 54'

2/8/2026

League #624 · Round 6Estádio Moça Bonita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bangu52%

×Draw31%

Boavista SC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanguExpected goals in this matchBoavista SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.58

Bangu

1.21

Boavista SC

0.58

Bangu creates 109% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

0.67

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Bangu

1.00

Boavista SC

0.50

allows per match

Bangu

0.67

Boavista SC

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangu+0.00on par

Boavista SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangu ↓

Boavista SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bangu or draw

82%

Bangu or Boavista SC

69%

Draw or Boavista SC

48%

Winning margin

Bangu wins by 2+

23%

Boavista SC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bangu 1+ goals

70%

Bangu 2+ goals

34%

Bangu 3+ goals

12%

Boavista SC 1+ goals

44%

Boavista SC 2+ goals

12%

Boavista SC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bangu (draw refunded)

74%

Boavista SC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Boavista SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangu attack 1.00 + Boavista SC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Boavista SC attack 0.50 + Bangu defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bangu scores more

52%

level

31%

Boavista SC scores more

18%

Bangu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bangu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Bruno Jesus

Boavista SC · D

7.7

Match Events

54'

Bruno Jesus↳ Isael

66'

Lucas Silva← Bere

67'

Fernando← Kadu

70'

Mauro Silva

71'

Garrinsha← Luizinho

71'

Pedro China← Mauro

74'

Leandrinho←

78'

Tito

79'

Welington Zaru← Dioguinho

82'

Gabriel Richvicki← Titto

82'

Marcus Vinicius← Isael

88'

WalberPenalty

90+5'

Kauan Guilherme← Gilberto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanguBoavista

Overview

74%Possession26%

9Total Shots13

1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.96

6Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots13

6On Target6

1Off Target6

2Blocked1

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

74%Possession26%

536Total Passes184

462Accurate Passes133

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1