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Bangor vs Limavady United — League #561 2026

Bangor
Bangor
FT
2 – 2
Limavady United
Limavady United
4/25/2023League #561League #561 · Promotion Round - 3Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bangor42%
×Draw22%
Limavady United36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
1.88
Limavady United
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bangor
2.55
Limavady United
2.80

allows per match

Bangor
0.64
Limavady United
1.20

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Limavady United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Limavady United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
64%
Bangor or Limavady United
78%
Draw or Limavady United
58%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
23%
Limavady United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
85%
Bangor 2+ goals
56%
Bangor 3+ goals
29%
Limavady United 1+ goals
82%
Limavady United 2+ goals
51%
Limavady United 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
54%
Limavady United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Limavady United away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 2.55 + Limavady United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Limavady United attack 2.80 + Bangor defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bangor scores more
42%
level
22%
Limavady United scores more
36%

Bangor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangor vs Limavady United

Bangor and Limavady United drew 2-2 in League #561 on April 25, 2023.

The match was played at Bangor Fuels Arena in Bangor.