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Bangor vs Larne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bangor
Bangor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Larne
Larne
F. Racic 55'
7/7/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Fudbalski teren HTP Palisad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bangor21%
×Draw24%
Larne55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
0.99
Larne
1.75

Larne creates 77% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bangor
1.70
Larne
1.71

allows per match

Bangor
1.80
Larne
0.29

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Larne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
45%
Bangor or Larne
76%
Draw or Larne
79%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
7%
Larne wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
63%
Bangor 2+ goals
26%
Bangor 3+ goals
8%
Larne 1+ goals
83%
Larne 2+ goals
52%
Larne 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
28%
Larne (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Larne away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 1.70 + Larne defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Larne attack 1.71 + Bangor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bangor scores more
21%
level
24%
Larne scores more
55%

Larne at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
F. Racic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bangor 0–1 Larne

Larne beat Bangor 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 7, 2023.

Goals: F. Racic (55').

The match was played at Fudbalski teren HTP Palisad in Zlatibor.