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Bangor vs Ards — League #407 2026

Bangor
Bangor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ards
Ards
B. Arthurs 28', 23'
Z. Barr 89'
D. Roohi 29'
4/1/2025League #407League #407 · Promotion Group - 1Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bangor60%
×Draw21%
Ards18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
2.00
Ards
1.00

Bangor creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bangor
2.50
Ards
1.25

allows per match

Bangor
0.75
Ards
1.50

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Ards+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Ards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
82%
Bangor or Ards
79%
Draw or Ards
40%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
36%
Ards wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
86%
Bangor 2+ goals
59%
Bangor 3+ goals
32%
Ards 1+ goals
63%
Ards 2+ goals
26%
Ards 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
77%
Ards (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Ards away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 2.50 + Ards defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ards attack 1.25 + Bangor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bangor scores more
60%
level
21%
Ards scores more
18%

Bangor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
B. Arthurs
28'
B. Arthurs
29'
D. Roohi
89'
Z. Barr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Bangor 2–2 Ards

Bangor and Ards drew 2-2 in League #407 on April 1, 2025.

Goals: B. Arthurs (23', 28'), D. Roohi (29'), Z. Barr (89').

The match was played at Bangor Fuels Arena in Bangor.